What to expect from the Autumn Budget
In normal years, the Autumn Budget (formerly the Autumn Statement) is announced in November. However, with less than 6 months left on the countdown to Brexit, this year is far from a normal year.
At the end of September, Chancellor Philip Hammond revealed that the Autumn Budget would be released on 29 October which is also, unusually, a Monday – traditionally budgets are announced on a Wednesday. Since the Wednesday would’ve been Halloween, perhaps the Chancellor moved the budget forward by two days to avoid a potential Budget horror show.
Hammond’s Twitter feed indicates that we can expect the Chancellor to balance the books. Aside from this there has been little concrete information about what the Budget might contain. However, Hammond has given us a few hints:
The end of the freeze on fuel duty
It’s likely that the eight year freeze on fuel duty will come to an end this year. Last month, Hammond said that the freeze on fuel duty has meant the Government has “foregone” £46 billion in revenue and, if the freeze continues, will miss out on £38 billion more.
One of the Chancellor’s main concerns will be finding the money to fulfil Theresa May’s pledge to pump an extra £20 billion into the NHS by 2023. The prime minister herself admitted that this would require tax hikes, but was unclear as to which taxes would be raised.
At the recent Tory conference, Hammond said that Britain will impose a new “digital service tax”, even if other countries fail to follow suit. However, what this tax might look like is currently unclear.
He called for a reform of the international tax system for an era where digital companies account for much of global business, with Britain leading the way. Business leaders have mentioned that such a tax could compromise the UK’s reputation as a good place for digital companies to do business.
Of course, what will have the largest bearing on the eventual success of any changes to the budget is any Brexit deal. A good Brexit deal will boost growth and balance public finances without the need for major tax hikes.
We eagerly await the Chancellor’s Budget at the end of the month.